0XGamer14
2020-08-10T19:33:47+00:00
[url]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200817&instance_id=21332&nl=the-morning®i_id=114032415§ion_index=1§ion_name=big_story&segment_id=36280&te=1&user_id=b752fd94a5119dfc3f3bd7482f029b8a[/url]
我甚至怀疑这玩意很快就会被删除。发布时间为Aug. 17, 2020 Updated 2:16 p.m. ET
因为从标题到内容都过于神秘，我无法评价，只能稍微摘抄和翻译几段：
We’ve known from the beginning how the end will arrive. Eventually, the coronavirus will be unable to find enough susceptible hosts to survive, fading out wherever it briefly emerges.
我们从一开始就知道这次危机将如何结束：病毒将无法找到足够的宿主生存，最终消失在历史的长河之中
To achieve so-called herd immunity....scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.
为了形成畜群免疫，科学家们预估需要大约70%的人口拥有免疫能力，无论是通过接种疫苗还是感染病毒并存活下来
...more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.
然而在最近纽约时报的采访中，超过12个科学家表示，似乎畜群免疫需要的人口比例将远远低于预期：也许只要不到50%的人口就行了。如果这是真的，人们可以比预想中更早地迎来疫情拐点。
But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.
有科学家表示，在纽约、伦敦和孟买的部分地区，不难想象那里已经对病毒拥有了一定的免疫能力。(说这话的人叫Bill Hanage，哈佛的公共卫生传染病学家，他同时预言冬天就能体现畜群免疫的成果)
...a neighborhood of older people may have little contact with others but succumb to the virus quickly when they encounter it, whereas teenagers may bequeath the virus to dozens of contacts and yet stay healthy themselves.
老年人社区可能不和人过多接触，但是一旦接触病毒他们就会很快中招，相反，青少年可能接触病毒几十次了，依然身强体壮。
Assuming the virus ferrets out the most outgoing and most susceptible in the first wave, immunity following a wave of infection is distributed more efficiently than with a vaccination campaign that seeks to protect everyone, said Tom Britton, a mathematician at Stockholm University.
考虑到病毒第一波爆发是最猛烈和迅速的，人们在第一波病毒爆发之后获得的畜群免疫能力或许比全民注射疫苗还要有效(翻译到这儿的时候我人都傻了。)说这话的人是Tom Britton，Stockholm University的数学家。
His model puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent — that is, the virus cannot hang on in a community after that percentage of residents has been infected and recovered.
同样是这位Tom哥，他的模型将畜群免疫的预期人群比例设定为43%，并且认为43%的人感染病毒并且康复获得免疫力之后，病毒就无法在社区内传播了。
It’s also unclear how long someone who has recovered may be immune, and for how long..
文章稍稍说了句人话，之前是有人警告畜群免疫依然会造成大量伤亡，并且社区可能无法承担这个损失，这句话是说，康复多久以后会获得免疫能力，以及免疫能力能维持多久，依然不甚明朗。
在这之后列举了几个疫情爆发的地区例子，然后：
Is it possible that some of these communities have herd immunity? In some clinics, up to 80 percent of people tested had antibodies to the virus. The highest prevalence was found among teenage boys.
有没有可能这些地方已经成功达成了畜群免疫？在某些地区，已经有80%的人群检测出了新冠病毒抗体，尤其是在青少年男性中。
Researchers in Mumbai conducted just such a random household survey, knocking on every fourth door — or, if it was locked, the fifth — and took blood for antibody testing. They found a startling disparity between the city’s poorest neighborhoods and its more affluent enclaves. Between 51 and 58 percent of residents in poor areas had antibodies, versus 11 to 17 percent elsewhere in the city.
孟买的研究者进行了一场随机调查：他们每4-5家人取一家进行抽血检查，在孟买的贫民窟里，有51%~58%的居民拥有抗体，相对的，孟买其他地区有11%~17%的人拥有抗体。
Most researchers are wary of concluding that the hardest-hit neighborhoods of Brooklyn, or even those in blighted areas of Mumbai, have reached herd immunity or will be spared future outbreaks.
因此，绝大多数研究者得出结论：受到疫情影响最严重的纽约布鲁克林区，或者孟买贫民窟，已经成功达成畜群免疫，并且在将来的疫情爆发中不会被影响到。
Other researchers have suggested, controversially, that herd immunity can be achieved at rates of immunity as low as 10 or 20 percent — and that entire countries may already have achieved that goal.
还有研究者指出，没准儿即使只有10~20%的人免疫，该社区也可以成功获得畜群免疫，也就是说全国都已经成功达成了畜群免疫的成就！(我傻了)
Sunetra Gupta, a theoretical epidemiologist at Oxford University, after a widely circulated interview in which she said that London and New York may already have reached herd immunity because of variability among people, combined with a theoretical immunity to common cold coronaviruses that may protect against the new one.“That could be the explanation for why you don’t see a resurgence in places like New York,” she said.
牛津的另一个传染病学家，Sunetra Gupta，在综合了之前“免疫普通流感也许可以帮助避免变异后的新流感”理论以及她所进行的一场大规模循环调查两者以后，她认为伦敦和纽约已经成功获得了畜群免疫。她说：“这就是为什么你没有在纽约这种地方看到疫情的二次爆发”
接下来是惯例理中客时间，文章列举了各种人士的反对观点，以及相应人士的反驳，对应神论有：
“比利时，英国，葡萄牙和西班牙获得畜群免疫只需要10%~20%的人群比例”
“如果病毒再次回到纽约，他将无法像上次一样凶猛”(说这话的人是个澳大利亚人，Joel Miller，La Trobe University in Australia的数学建模师)
The models also suggest a vaccination strategy: Rather than uniformly vaccinate all groups, governments could identify and immunize those most likely to be exposed in “superspreader” events.“Getting those people vaccinated first can lead to the greatest benefit,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an immunologist at Harvard University. “That alone could lead to herd immunity.”
模型还指出：与其全民接种疫苗，找到“接触了超级感染者的人群”并且给他们接种疫苗是最有利的行为。这样也可以达成畜群免疫(By Dr. Michael Mina,哈佛免疫学家)
文章结尾引用了Ms. Marcus的话，她的十岁侄女正在隔离中。
“Sometimes that’s all you need, right?” she said. “I’m still hoping we don’t see what we had in March and April, but I’m not so sure that we’ve seen the end of it.”
“有时候，(隔离)就是全部你需要做的事儿了，对吧？我希望我们不会再次见到三四月时候的惨状，但是我依然不确定我们是否已经见到了这一切的结束。”
我甚至怀疑这玩意很快就会被删除。发布时间为Aug. 17, 2020 Updated 2:16 p.m. ET
因为从标题到内容都过于神秘，我无法评价，只能稍微摘抄和翻译几段：
We’ve known from the beginning how the end will arrive. Eventually, the coronavirus will be unable to find enough susceptible hosts to survive, fading out wherever it briefly emerges.
我们从一开始就知道这次危机将如何结束：病毒将无法找到足够的宿主生存，最终消失在历史的长河之中
To achieve so-called herd immunity....scientists have suggested that perhaps 70 percent of a given population must be immune, through vaccination or because they survived the infection.
为了形成畜群免疫，科学家们预估需要大约70%的人口拥有免疫能力，无论是通过接种疫苗还是感染病毒并存活下来
...more than a dozen scientists said that the threshold is likely to be much lower: just 50 percent, perhaps even less. If that’s true, then it may be possible to turn back the coronavirus more quickly than once thought.
然而在最近纽约时报的采访中，超过12个科学家表示，似乎畜群免疫需要的人口比例将远远低于预期：也许只要不到50%的人口就行了。如果这是真的，人们可以比预想中更早地迎来疫情拐点。
But in parts of New York, London and Mumbai, for example, it is not inconceivable that there is already substantial immunity to the coronavirus, scientists said.
有科学家表示，在纽约、伦敦和孟买的部分地区，不难想象那里已经对病毒拥有了一定的免疫能力。(说这话的人叫Bill Hanage，哈佛的公共卫生传染病学家，他同时预言冬天就能体现畜群免疫的成果)
...a neighborhood of older people may have little contact with others but succumb to the virus quickly when they encounter it, whereas teenagers may bequeath the virus to dozens of contacts and yet stay healthy themselves.
老年人社区可能不和人过多接触，但是一旦接触病毒他们就会很快中招，相反，青少年可能接触病毒几十次了，依然身强体壮。
Assuming the virus ferrets out the most outgoing and most susceptible in the first wave, immunity following a wave of infection is distributed more efficiently than with a vaccination campaign that seeks to protect everyone, said Tom Britton, a mathematician at Stockholm University.
考虑到病毒第一波爆发是最猛烈和迅速的，人们在第一波病毒爆发之后获得的畜群免疫能力或许比全民注射疫苗还要有效(翻译到这儿的时候我人都傻了。)说这话的人是Tom Britton，Stockholm University的数学家。
His model puts the threshold for herd immunity at 43 percent — that is, the virus cannot hang on in a community after that percentage of residents has been infected and recovered.
同样是这位Tom哥，他的模型将畜群免疫的预期人群比例设定为43%，并且认为43%的人感染病毒并且康复获得免疫力之后，病毒就无法在社区内传播了。
It’s also unclear how long someone who has recovered may be immune, and for how long..
文章稍稍说了句人话，之前是有人警告畜群免疫依然会造成大量伤亡，并且社区可能无法承担这个损失，这句话是说，康复多久以后会获得免疫能力，以及免疫能力能维持多久，依然不甚明朗。
在这之后列举了几个疫情爆发的地区例子，然后：
Is it possible that some of these communities have herd immunity? In some clinics, up to 80 percent of people tested had antibodies to the virus. The highest prevalence was found among teenage boys.
有没有可能这些地方已经成功达成了畜群免疫？在某些地区，已经有80%的人群检测出了新冠病毒抗体，尤其是在青少年男性中。
Researchers in Mumbai conducted just such a random household survey, knocking on every fourth door — or, if it was locked, the fifth — and took blood for antibody testing. They found a startling disparity between the city’s poorest neighborhoods and its more affluent enclaves. Between 51 and 58 percent of residents in poor areas had antibodies, versus 11 to 17 percent elsewhere in the city.
孟买的研究者进行了一场随机调查：他们每4-5家人取一家进行抽血检查，在孟买的贫民窟里，有51%~58%的居民拥有抗体，相对的，孟买其他地区有11%~17%的人拥有抗体。
Most researchers are wary of concluding that the hardest-hit neighborhoods of Brooklyn, or even those in blighted areas of Mumbai, have reached herd immunity or will be spared future outbreaks.
因此，绝大多数研究者得出结论：受到疫情影响最严重的纽约布鲁克林区，或者孟买贫民窟，已经成功达成畜群免疫，并且在将来的疫情爆发中不会被影响到。
Other researchers have suggested, controversially, that herd immunity can be achieved at rates of immunity as low as 10 or 20 percent — and that entire countries may already have achieved that goal.
还有研究者指出，没准儿即使只有10~20%的人免疫，该社区也可以成功获得畜群免疫，也就是说全国都已经成功达成了畜群免疫的成就！(我傻了)
Sunetra Gupta, a theoretical epidemiologist at Oxford University, after a widely circulated interview in which she said that London and New York may already have reached herd immunity because of variability among people, combined with a theoretical immunity to common cold coronaviruses that may protect against the new one.“That could be the explanation for why you don’t see a resurgence in places like New York,” she said.
牛津的另一个传染病学家，Sunetra Gupta，在综合了之前“免疫普通流感也许可以帮助避免变异后的新流感”理论以及她所进行的一场大规模循环调查两者以后，她认为伦敦和纽约已经成功获得了畜群免疫。她说：“这就是为什么你没有在纽约这种地方看到疫情的二次爆发”
接下来是惯例理中客时间，文章列举了各种人士的反对观点，以及相应人士的反驳，对应神论有：
“比利时，英国，葡萄牙和西班牙获得畜群免疫只需要10%~20%的人群比例”
“如果病毒再次回到纽约，他将无法像上次一样凶猛”(说这话的人是个澳大利亚人，Joel Miller，La Trobe University in Australia的数学建模师)
The models also suggest a vaccination strategy: Rather than uniformly vaccinate all groups, governments could identify and immunize those most likely to be exposed in “superspreader” events.“Getting those people vaccinated first can lead to the greatest benefit,” said Dr. Michael Mina, an immunologist at Harvard University. “That alone could lead to herd immunity.”
模型还指出：与其全民接种疫苗，找到“接触了超级感染者的人群”并且给他们接种疫苗是最有利的行为。这样也可以达成畜群免疫(By Dr. Michael Mina,哈佛免疫学家)
文章结尾引用了Ms. Marcus的话，她的十岁侄女正在隔离中。
“Sometimes that’s all you need, right?” she said. “I’m still hoping we don’t see what we had in March and April, but I’m not so sure that we’ve seen the end of it.”
“有时候，(隔离)就是全部你需要做的事儿了，对吧？我希望我们不会再次见到三四月时候的惨状，但是我依然不确定我们是否已经见到了这一切的结束。”