北美港口堵塞又来了。。601919

Death!-avatar

Death!

2022-07-23T14:42:18+00:00

北美供应链危机:破纪录的153条集装箱货轮堵在港口

[url]https://www.freightwaves.com/news/traffic-jam-of-waiting-container-ships-is-now-as-bad-as-ever/amp[/url]


北美的港口堵塞破纪录,153条集装箱货轮堵在北美各大港口,比2022年6月份上升66%
Record container ship traffic jam as backlog continues to build
153 ships stuck in queues off North American ports, up 66% from early June
在今年一月二月,上一次北美港口堵船的时候,也只有少于150条集装箱船在港口外等待, 当时三分之二发生在加州的洛杉矶和长滩两大港口
In January and February, when North American congestion previously peaked, there were just under 150 container vessels waiting off the coastlines. Two-thirds were in the Los Angeles/Long Beach queue.
而截止于7/28日周四,则有了破纪录的153条集装箱货轮在堵着,主要是在美国东海岸和墨西哥湾
As of Thursday morning, there were 153, the majority off East and Gulf Coast ports.

今年五六月份,北美的货轮堵塞看上去有好转,6月10日只有92条船在排队。
然后七月份(注美国独立日后),堵船数量在7月8日达到了125条,在7月13日为136条,在7月19日则为140条,而现在(7月28日)则达到了153条
堵船港口如下:
萨凡纳港 43条
洛杉矶/长滩港 26条
休斯敦港 24条
纽约/新泽西 18条
温哥华 17条
加州奥克兰港 15条

Port congestion had finally looked like it was easing in May and early June. Ship queues had fallen back to double digits. There were 92 vessels waiting offshore as of June 10, led by 25 off Savannah, Georgia, 20 off Los Angeles/Long Beach, 18 off New York/New Jersey and 14 off Houston.
Then things turned for the worse. The tally rose to 125 on July 8, 136 on July 13 and 140 on July 19.
With the count now rising to 153, the North American container ship queue has increased in size by 66% over the past seven weeks.
As of Thursday morning, ship-position data from MarineTraffic and the latest queue lists for California ports showed 43 container ships waiting off Savannah; 26 off Los Angeles/Long Beach; 24 off Houston; 18 off New York/New Jersey; 17 off Vancouver, British Columbia; 15 off Oakland, California; and 10 ships off other ports.
Of those, 59 ships 38% of the total were waiting off the West Coast, where queues have climbed off Vancouver and Oakland. There were 94 ships (62% of the total) off the East and Gulf Coast ports, with counts up in both Savannah and Houston.

六七月份北美东西海岸的堵塞严重并非巧合, 因为六七月份刚好是每一年新的年度合同生效的日子。同时也是西海岸 ILWU工会合同到期日。
新的合同生效导致了大量原本西海岸的长期客户转向东海岸, 而上个月西海岸工会的**威胁更进一步加重了危机

It may be no coincidence that East and Gulf Coast congestion ramped up starting in June. That was the month new annual contracts kicked in. It was also the last month before the West Coast labor contract with the ILWU longshoreman union expired.
Akhil Nair, vice president of carrier management at Seko Logistics, said during a briefing on July 20, “With all the early threats of the potential ILWU strike and labor constraints on the West Coast, there was an automatic shift during contract season for customers to actually require traditional West Coast shippers to request allocation on the East Coast as well. This was their contractual hedge that they put in place.
“This has resulted now in people probably having overcompensated. The congestion on the East Coast is a result of some of this shifting in the supply chain design and hedging for potential incidents or reliable or unpredictable activity on the West Coast.”
Purp-avatar

Purp

这是利好……?[s:ac:呆]
Uptightscissors-avatar

Uptightscissors

这个确实是利好。其实,前些天我看过雪球上讨论这个问题。因为美西拥堵,部分货主转向美东港口。短期确实能看到美西的拥堵缓解,但是都去美东的话,美东的港口也会堵。而且总路程变长了,占用了更多运力。美东的运费比美西更贵。

另外,CCFI指数中,美东的权重只有7.5%,美西是20%。我觉得是不是与现状不符合了?是不是应该增加美东的权重?既然更多的船去了美东。
<> Ψ-avatar

<> Ψ

不是,中国制造业pmi跌了,美国零售库存涨了,到底是谁还在买东西啊,怎么还能堵的
Cod3_Nam3Skul1-avatar

Cod3_Nam3Skul1

这几年海运赚翻了。
oramgeman-avatar

oramgeman

[quote][pid=629027804,32885581,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=63291969]前晚吃什么[/uid] (2022-07-31 23:15):
不是,中国制造业pmi跌了,美国零售库存涨了,到底是谁还在买东西啊,怎么还能堵的[/quote]要圣诞节了[img]https://img.nga.178.com/attachments/mon_201209/14/-47218_5052bcf0ba2db.png[/img]
Twitch splitzu1x-avatar

Twitch splitzu1x

7月28日是周四
这如果是利好
那么周五又走成日线低7?
Uptightscissors-avatar

Uptightscissors

[quote][pid=629030200,32885581,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=41527622]zippo525[/uid] (2022-07-31 23:29):

7月28日是周四
这如果是利好
那么周五又走成日线低7?[/quote]周五全球的集运股好像只有海控跌了。
Mecanik-avatar

Mecanik

不是天大的利好,就当放屁把,[s:a2:不明觉厉]。海狗明显不正常了。
ShOGUN-avatar

ShOGUN

影响我国外汇创收,美帝躺赢,中恐输
TwistedGenji-avatar

TwistedGenji

[quote][pid=629027804,32885581,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=63291969]前晚吃什么[/uid] (2022-07-31 23:15):

不是,中国制造业pmi跌了,美国零售库存涨了,到底是谁还在买东西啊,怎么还能堵的[/quote]pmi是增速
国内出口数据一直在增长,总不能凭空变出商品来出口吧[s:ac:哭笑]

零售库存增长可以用消费模式改变和提前备货来解释。
via-avatar

via

[img]https://img.nga.178.com/attachments/mon_202208/01/jmQrc3k-epf9K20T3cSmz-sg.jpg[/img]
外围大涨2天了,星期一回调,海狗加倍跟,看到12
Dummy-avatar

Dummy

是利好,不过利好对海控无效
yung tungsten-avatar

yung tungsten

海狗因为散户太多已经被玩坏了,大资金不愿意拉,老水手都是熟练的刺客,天大的利好也就只能拉4,5个点然后被刺客刺下去[s:ac:哭笑]
redbeans-avatar

redbeans

[img]https://img.nga.178.com/attachments/mon_202208/01/jmQrc3k-ktf2K10ToS7m-88.jpg.medium.jpg[/img]
Employeed-avatar

Employeed

[img]https://img.nga.178.com/attachments/mon_202208/01/jmQrc3k-41eK1dT1kSa0-a0.jpg.medium.jpg[/img]
Yahoy-avatar

Yahoy

Reply to [pid=629027804,32885581,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=63291969]前晚吃什么[/uid] (2022-07-31 23:15) 堵住 卸货了没地方放
EECode2-avatar

EECode2

散户太多还喜欢刺拖累了股价,如果这股没这么多散户、明显不是这个价