kai.
2020-03-23T14:57:42+00:00
论坛里有人发帖为什么国家还不降息，还不放水刺激经济，自己都已经活不下去了。我标题已经给你答案，至于为什么说更大的经济危机即将到来，原因有以下几点
第一，上周惠誉和穆迪降评英国和南非的信用评级，这意味着全球降评潮马上就要来，而国家被降评会直接影响这个国家的债券市场以及金融市场，因为各类基金是看信用评等来决定持有多少的该国国债。降评直接会导致这些基金进行调仓，抛售国债、企业债以及各种金融衍生品。
第二，中国的基本工业原料期货市场是全球最大，这一段时间基本工业原料的期货价格根本没有反弹，也就是说国外的刺激手段并没有传导到实体上，当然你可以认为是受到疫情影响，导致需求减少，但是疫情什么时候结束？下半年？明年？
第三，各个粮食出口国限制出口和国内豆粕期货价格上涨，说明大宗农产品价格上涨已经是进行时了，大宗农产品价格牵扯到物价，加上全球大放水(特别是美国)，说明全球大通膨的脚步可能很快就会到，这次的通膨极有可能是恶性通膨，因为疫情的原因总和需求并没有提高，物价的上涨是货币导致的。
以上的几点都证明更大的经济危机已经离我们很近了，咱们国家能用的货币政策手段、降息幅度就那么多，又不能向美国一样超发货币转移通膨，欧洲是任期制，保住自己的任期就行，谁管后任怎么样？中国能用的经济刺激手段是用一个少一个，这也是为什么国家这么谨慎的使用货币刺激的原因，如果只为了现在一些人不卖房就大放水，等后面经济危机来了，央行没手段了，可能会有很多人要乞讨。
最后再说点政治上的原因，在一点好处都没捞到的情况下大放水，随美联储起舞救的是美国，2008年11月4日美国总统选举，2008年11月5日，国务院常务会议正式作出“四万亿投资计划”决定。一定会降息加财政刺激的，只是在等而已。
准备真的子弹才最实在，美元靠啥行走全球，就是靠军事实力。
[s:ac:咦]能不能用普通人能听懂的语言再来一遍？
Reply to [pid=409377299,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=3422573]蛆骑病肝[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:33)
不是，
你再多子弹，你现在能绕过美国打劫谁还是咋滴？？
才吃几天饱饭，就天天把酒当水喝，整天意淫
Reply to [pid=409377799,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=39385295]佑剑[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:35)他的意思是美国下半年选举结束，中国就要出救市方案。
[quote][pid=409377799,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=39385295]佑剑[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:35):
[s:ac:咦]能不能用普通人能听懂的语言再来一遍？[/quote]现在还不是最糟的，还有更糟，国家还在等
[quote][pid=409377799,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=39385295]佑剑[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:35):
[s:ac:咦]能不能用普通人能听懂的语言再来一遍？[/quote]房价要疯狂上涨了[s:ac:哭笑]
[quote][pid=409377799,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=39385295]佑剑[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:35):
[s:ac:咦]能不能用普通人能听懂的语言再来一遍？[/quote]就是不能在真正危机到来之前打光子弹。
[quote][pid=409377799,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=39385295]佑剑[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:35):
[s:ac:咦]能不能用普通人能听懂的语言再来一遍？[/quote]现在就看见点浪花，有人就只要国家出手底牌全打了，但国家表示至少得等到确定海啸在打底牌
等美国大选？逻辑在哪？08年之后帮过美国后来被坑惨了，还不接受教训吗？
[quote][pid=409377799,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=39385295]佑剑[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:35):
[s:ac:咦]能不能用普通人能听懂的语言再来一遍？[/quote]这才刚开始
2021年是什么样 有没有2021年 还不知道呢
Reply to [pid=409378153,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=61930998]还是不知道叫什么ID[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:36)
准确的来说是拿到利益再随美联储起舞，从G20之后的情况来看，我们目前没有得到我们想要。降息财政刺激虽然也是救自己，但是更是会救到美国，毕竟美国是吸全球的血。
说的不错，国家做准备，大家也要做准备，思想上的准备。
我们国家不需要不计代价救股市
所以完全不用被美国牵着鼻子走去放水
美国的放水现在在上游，并没有这么快传导到息息相关的各个行业。如果说你从事的行业已经感觉到的话，那大概只是开始。
准备真子弹才是真的
Making China pay
Everywhere I look now, there's another death from Covid-19 (or complications). The playwright Terrence McNally. Staffers from NBC and CBS. The actor Mark Blum. Parents of people I follow on Twitter. The CFO of Jefferies.
It's tragic stuff. And once the grief and fear subside--and maybe even sooner--my guess is those emotions will turn to anger, and then blame. Who caused the death of my loved ones? People will ask. Who cost me my job, my business, my life savings? And the answer right now is: China.
I think that's partly why President Trump's approval ratings have risen as Covid has crippled America. The stock market's sunk 20-30%, the economy's at a standstill, and yet his reelection odds have brightened? Seems unlikely, but then again (a) national tragedies tend to improve the president's approval ratings, and (b), this tragedy seems to confirm the president's wariness of China.
So let's fast forward a couple of months, when the U.S. has paid out trillions in loans and grants to the American people and its businesses for relief. Our deficit could easily be running 15-20% the size of our GDP this year, far worse than we saw during the depths of the Great Recession. You don't think Trump will try to make China pay for at least some of that? Especially if the alternatives for closing the deficit are huge tax hikes or slashing government services, or getting hammered about it as a campaign issue?
It's no wonder the Chinese are trying so hard to deflect blame for Covid-19. There was a whole brouhaha the past couple weeks over an NPR story that quoted an Italian doctor as saying a "very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people" was seen in the country as early as November. The Chinese immediately seized on it as evidence that Covid-19 didn't come from them. Few others are convinced.
The Chinese have been trying to blame the U.S. military for the outbreak while refusing international authorities access to the area in Wuhan province where Covid-19 broke out. (Here's the WSJ story that traces "patient zero" to a seafood merchant there. Now China has banished all U.S. journalists working for the Journal, New York Times, and Washington Post.)
There is already concern, at least by the Chinese, that this fight over money and blame could quickly escalate. Communist party mouthpiece Hu Xijin, of the Global Times, last week tweeted: "Whoever stirs up conflict between China and the US will be condemned by history."
And this rage at China isn't just coming from America: "FURY AT CHINA'S LIES" was the headline of Britain's Sunday Mail, which said pressure is building on prime minister Boris Johnson--who himself has contracted Covid-19--to reverse his decision to let Huawei build large parts of Britain's new 5G network.
That may be the least of China's concerns in the coming months.
See you at 1 p.m...
Kelly
[s:ac:计划通]美帝国主义傲慢蛮横 只有它没有别的办法了 才会讲道理
[quote][pid=409379444,21061138,1]Reply[/pid] Post by [uid=41765322]马桶观察者[/uid] (2020-03-30 23:42):
等美国大选？逻辑在哪？08年之后帮过美国后来被坑惨了，还不接受教训吗？[/quote]大选之后能看清美国的政策，对应出招